Event Selector

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 24, 2021 Past Jacksonville, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 329.686
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
119
Value Picks Flagged
36
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 119 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 36 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Brendan Allen ROI 1.38x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge Γ—1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum Γ—1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist Γ—0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability Γ—0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace Γ—0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal Γ—0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence Γ—0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson 1.38x ROI
Brendan Allen weighted 1.0 Market 1.6 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Anthony Smith vs Jimmy Crute 1.31x ROI
Jimmy Crute weighted 1.0 Market 1.45 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Uriah Hall vs Chris Weidman 1.2x ROI
Chris Weidman weighted 1.27 Market 1.7 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Brendan Allen vs Karl Roberson 0.57x ROI
Karl Roberson weighted β€” Market 2.32 Crowd β€”
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Anthony Smith vs Jimmy Crute 0.64x ROI
Anthony Smith weighted β€” Market 2.8 Crowd β€”
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Uriah Hall vs Chris Weidman 0.75x ROI
Uriah Hall weighted 4.73 Market 2.16 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 38.5%

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet β€” waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 77.79
ROI Momentum 0.35
Underdog Specialist -0.5
Favorite Reliability 28.16
Weight-Class Ace 4.18
Regional Familiarity 17.85
Value Pick Signal 19.25
Sample Size Confidence 63.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.