Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 08, 2021 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 203.892
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
71
Value Picks Flagged
22
Fight Slots
9
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 71 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 22 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Phil Hawes ROI 1.54x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Phil Hawes vs Kyle Daukaus 1.54x ROI
Phil Hawes weighted 1.0 Market 2.19 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gregor Gillespie vs Carlos Diego Ferreira 1.39x ROI
Gregor Gillespie weighted 1.0 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Phil Hawes vs Kyle Daukaus 0.4x ROI
Kyle Daukaus weighted — Market 1.67 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gregor Gillespie vs Carlos Diego Ferreira 0.55x ROI
Carlos Diego Ferreira weighted — Market 2.22 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alex Morono vs Donald Cerrone 0.82x ROI
Alex Morono weighted 4.85 Market 2.61 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 55.6%
Pure crowd 77.8%
Market favourite 33.3%

Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 49.73
ROI Momentum -0.58
Underdog Specialist -0.78
Favorite Reliability 17.38
Weight-Class Ace 2.03
Regional Familiarity 10.65
Value Pick Signal 13.65
Sample Size Confidence 40.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.