Event Selector

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 15, 2021 Past Houston, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 337.095
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
120
Value Picks Flagged
36
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 120 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 36 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.55 Tony Ferguson ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Beneil Dariush vs Tony Ferguson 1.21x ROI
Tony Ferguson weighted 1.55 Market 2.27 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Edson Barboza vs Shane Burgos 1.2x ROI
Edson Barboza weighted 1.57 Market 2.3 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Beneil Dariush vs Tony Ferguson 0.74x ROI
Beneil Dariush weighted 2.83 Market 1.62 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Edson Barboza vs Shane Burgos 0.75x ROI
Shane Burgos weighted 2.75 Market 1.63 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler 0.79x ROI
Charles Oliveira weighted 2.7 Market 1.73 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 45.5%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 45.5%

Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 77.89
ROI Momentum -0.26
Underdog Specialist -0.54
Favorite Reliability 26.96
Weight-Class Ace 12.3
Regional Familiarity 16.5
Value Pick Signal 20.65
Sample Size Confidence 63.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.