Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 22, 2021 Past Total Weight 311.792
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
114
Value Picks Flagged
43
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 114 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 43 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.17 Rafael Alves ROI 1.26x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Damir Ismagulov vs Rafael Alves 1.26x ROI
Rafael Alves weighted 2.17 Market 4.92 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Norma Dumont vs Felicia Spencer 1.18x ROI
Norma Dumont weighted 1.76 Market 2.6 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Damir Ismagulov vs Rafael Alves 0.69x ROI
Damir Ismagulov weighted 1.85 Market 1.18 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Norma Dumont vs Felicia Spencer 0.77x ROI
Felicia Spencer weighted 2.31 Market 1.51 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jared Vanderaa vs Justin Tafa 0.8x ROI
Justin Tafa weighted 2.2 Market 1.52 Crowd 2.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 100.0%
Pure crowd 100.0%
Market favourite 33.3%

Rob Font vs Cody Garbrandt

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 81.97
ROI Momentum -0.36
Underdog Specialist -0.38
Favorite Reliability 26.95
Weight-Class Ace 4.21
Value Pick Signal 18.2
Sample Size Confidence 67.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.