Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 05, 2021 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 293.408
Channels Engaged
10
Predictions Logged
106
Value Picks Flagged
30
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 106 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 10 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 30 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Miguel Baeza ROI 1.38x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza 1.38x ROI
Miguel Baeza weighted 1.0 Market 1.62 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Muslim Salikhov vs Francisco Trinaldo 1.31x ROI
Muslim Salikhov weighted 1.0 Market 1.44 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza 0.58x ROI
Santiago Ponzinibbio weighted — Market 2.36 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Muslim Salikhov vs Francisco Trinaldo 0.64x ROI
Francisco Trinaldo weighted — Market 2.79 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ilir Latifi vs Tanner Boser 0.68x ROI
Tanner Boser weighted 3.19 Market 1.57 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 65.77
ROI Momentum -0.63
Underdog Specialist -0.8
Favorite Reliability 25.97
Weight-Class Ace 6.35
Regional Familiarity 15.75
Value Pick Signal 21.0
Sample Size Confidence 54.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.