Event Selector

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 10, 2021 Past 20,062 062 Total Weight 363.026
Channels Engaged
10
Predictions Logged
130
Value Picks Flagged
44
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 130 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 10 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 44 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Jennifer Maia ROI 1.44x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jennifer Maia vs Jessica Eye 1.44x ROI
Jennifer Maia weighted 1.0 Market 1.79 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor 1.28x ROI
Dustin Poirier weighted 1.19 Market 1.77 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Jennifer Maia vs Jessica Eye 0.5x ROI
Jessica Eye weighted — Market 1.99 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor 0.68x ROI
Conor McGregor weighted 6.28 Market 2.08 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Michel Pereira vs Niko Price 0.82x ROI
Niko Price weighted 4.31 Market 2.45 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 91.7%
Pure crowd 91.7%
Market favourite 66.7%

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 85.83
ROI Momentum -1.01
Underdog Specialist 0.19
Favorite Reliability 30.64
Weight-Class Ace 6.62
Regional Familiarity 18.15
Value Pick Signal 22.4
Sample Size Confidence 70.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.