Event Selector

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 07, 2021 Past Houston, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 442.698
Channels Engaged
10
Predictions Logged
158
Value Picks Flagged
40
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 158 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 10 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 40 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.86 Ed Herman ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Alonzo Menifield vs Ed Herman 1.2x ROI
Ed Herman weighted 1.86 Market 2.95 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Manel Kape vs Ode' Osbourne 0.74x ROI
Ode' Osbourne weighted 4.82 Market 2.13 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alonzo Menifield vs Ed Herman 0.75x ROI
Alonzo Menifield weighted 2.16 Market 1.41 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
José Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz 0.76x ROI
Pedro Munhoz weighted 3.82 Market 1.99 Crowd 3.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 61.5%

Ciryl Gane vs Derrick Lewis

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 105.57
ROI Momentum -0.05
Underdog Specialist -0.97
Favorite Reliability 42.92
Weight-Class Ace 3.43
Regional Familiarity 22.2
Value Pick Signal 25.2
Sample Size Confidence 86.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.