Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 21, 2021 Past Total Weight 287.06
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
112
Value Picks Flagged
28
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 112 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 28 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.66 Brandon Royval ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval 1.18x ROI
Brandon Royval weighted 1.66 Market 2.38 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval 0.77x ROI
Alexandre Pantoja weighted 2.52 Market 1.59 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Sasha Palatnikov 0.8x ROI
Sasha Palatnikov weighted 3.81 Market 2.15 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum 0.83x ROI
Kelvin Gastelum weighted 3.48 Market 2.18 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 73.65
ROI Momentum -0.61
Underdog Specialist -0.96
Favorite Reliability 18.58
Weight-Class Ace 9.36
Value Pick Signal 15.05
Sample Size Confidence 60.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.