Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 28, 2021 Past Total Weight 303.107
Channels Engaged
10
Predictions Logged
122
Value Picks Flagged
31
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 122 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 10 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 31 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.15 Dustin Jacoby ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Dustin Jacoby vs Darren Stewart 1.21x ROI
Dustin Jacoby weighted 1.15 Market 1.51 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Daniel Rodriguez vs Kevin Lee 1.2x ROI
Daniel Rodriguez weighted 1.53 Market 2.2 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Wellington Turman vs Sam Alvey 1.18x ROI
Wellington Turman weighted 1.34 Market 1.78 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Dustin Jacoby vs Darren Stewart 0.74x ROI
Darren Stewart weighted 7.7 Market 2.57 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Daniel Rodriguez vs Kevin Lee 0.75x ROI
Kevin Lee weighted 2.89 Market 1.68 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Wellington Turman vs Sam Alvey 0.76x ROI
Sam Alvey weighted 3.95 Market 2.04 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 16.7%

Giga Chikadze vs Edson Barboza

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 72.83
ROI Momentum 0.16
Underdog Specialist 0.33
Favorite Reliability 23.02
Weight-Class Ace 3.66
Value Pick Signal 21.7
Sample Size Confidence 59.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.