Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 18, 2021 Past — — Total Weight 398.57
Channels Engaged
10
Predictions Logged
147
Value Picks Flagged
40
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 147 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 10 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 40 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.25 Hannah Goldy ROI 1.3x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Hannah Goldy vs Emily Whitmire 1.3x ROI
Hannah Goldy weighted 1.25 Market 2.0 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Hannah Goldy vs Emily Whitmire 0.65x ROI
Emily Whitmire weighted 4.93 Market 1.81 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Raquel Pennington vs Pannie Kianzad 0.83x ROI
Pannie Kianzad weighted 3.16 Market 2.05 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tafon Nchukwi vs Mike Rodríguez 0.86x ROI
Tafon Nchukwi weighted 2.45 Market 1.81 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 84.6%
Pure crowd 92.3%
Market favourite 61.5%

Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 97.93
ROI Momentum -0.93
Underdog Specialist -1.06
Favorite Reliability 28.11
Weight-Class Ace 4.17
Regional Familiarity 20.55
Value Pick Signal 22.4
Sample Size Confidence 80.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.