Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 02, 2021 Past Total Weight 411.663
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
154
Value Picks Flagged
54
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 154 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 54 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.37 Thiago Santos ROI 1.13x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker 1.13x ROI
Thiago Santos weighted 1.37 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.43
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker 0.83x ROI
Johnny Walker weighted 3.69 Market 2.26 Crowd 3.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kevin Holland vs Kyle Daukaus 0.84x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 2.1 Market 1.57 Crowd 2.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alejandro Pérez vs Johnny Eduardo 0.86x ROI
Johnny Eduardo weighted 4.91 Market 2.9 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 54.5%

Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 101.4
ROI Momentum 0.12
Underdog Specialist 0.49
Favorite Reliability 35.01
Weight-Class Ace 8.04
Value Pick Signal 28.0
Sample Size Confidence 84.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.