Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 09, 2021 Past Total Weight 221.462
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
79
Value Picks Flagged
28
Fight Slots
9
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 79 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 28 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.38 Mariya Agapova ROI 1.32x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mariya Agapova vs Sabina Mazo 1.32x ROI
Mariya Agapova weighted 1.38 Market 2.48 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden 1.29x ROI
Randy Brown weighted 1.0 Market 1.41 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Mariya Agapova vs Sabina Mazo 0.63x ROI
Sabina Mazo weighted 3.62 Market 1.55 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden 0.66x ROI
Jared Gooden weighted — Market 2.95 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Chris Gutiérrez vs Felipe Colares 0.67x ROI
Felipe Colares weighted — Market 2.99 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 77.8%
Pure crowd 77.8%
Market favourite 55.6%

Marina Rodriguez vs Mackenzie Dern

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 55.8
ROI Momentum 0.34
Underdog Specialist -0.16
Favorite Reliability 22.94
Weight-Class Ace 2.55
Value Pick Signal 15.4
Sample Size Confidence 45.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.