Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 16, 2021 Past Total Weight 267.215
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
96
Value Picks Flagged
39
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 96 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 39 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Bruno Silva ROI 1.38x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge Γ—1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum Γ—1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist Γ—0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability Γ—0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace Γ—0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal Γ—0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence Γ—0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Bruno Silva vs Andrew Sanchez 1.38x ROI
Bruno Silva weighted 1.0 Market 1.62 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ariane Carnelossi vs Istela Nunes 1.12x ROI
Istela Nunes weighted 1.72 Market 2.19 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno Silva 1.11x ROI
Manon Fiorot weighted 1.2 Market 1.38 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Bruno Silva vs Andrew Sanchez 0.57x ROI
Andrew Sanchez weighted β€” Market 2.32 Crowd β€”
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ariane Carnelossi vs Istela Nunes 0.82x ROI
Ariane Carnelossi weighted 2.39 Market 1.67 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno Silva 0.84x ROI
Mayra Bueno Silva weighted 5.97 Market 3.04 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 30.0%

Norma Dumont vs Aspen Ladd

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet β€” waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 68.78
ROI Momentum 0.16
Underdog Specialist -0.06
Favorite Reliability 22.46
Weight-Class Ace 4.23
Value Pick Signal 19.25
Sample Size Confidence 56.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.