Event Selector

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 06, 2021 Past New York City, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 591.509
Channels Engaged
20
Predictions Logged
212
Value Picks Flagged
88
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 212 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 20 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 88 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.11 Bobby Green ROI 1.25x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Bobby Green vs Al Iaquinta 1.25x ROI
Bobby Green weighted 1.11 Market 1.52 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler 1.2x ROI
Michael Chandler weighted 1.79 Market 2.78 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Bobby Green vs Al Iaquinta 0.7x ROI
Al Iaquinta weighted 10.44 Market 2.54 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler 0.75x ROI
Justin Gaethje weighted 2.26 Market 1.45 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Dustin Jacoby vs John Allan 0.83x ROI
Dustin Jacoby weighted 1.6 Market 1.25 Crowd 1.75
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 71.4%
Pure crowd 71.4%
Market favourite 50.0%

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 147.34
ROI Momentum -0.82
Underdog Specialist -2.01
Favorite Reliability 36.7
Weight-Class Ace 14.45
Regional Familiarity 26.25
Value Pick Signal 36.4
Sample Size Confidence 121.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.