Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodríguez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 13, 2021 Past Total Weight 430.637
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
161
Value Picks Flagged
58
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 161 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 58 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.89 Rafael Alves ROI 1.17x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Rafael Alves vs Marc Diakiese 1.17x ROI
Rafael Alves weighted 1.89 Market 2.79 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Rafael Alves vs Marc Diakiese 0.78x ROI
Marc Diakiese weighted 2.13 Market 1.44 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Da Un Jung vs Kennedy Nzechukwu 0.78x ROI
Da Un Jung weighted 2.93 Market 1.79 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Cortney Casey vs Liana Jojua 0.79x ROI
Liana Jojua weighted 9.87 Market 3.26 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 45.5%

Max Holloway vs Yair Rodríguez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 109.25
ROI Momentum -0.06
Underdog Specialist 0.32
Favorite Reliability 37.72
Weight-Class Ace 4.67
Value Pick Signal 28.35
Sample Size Confidence 89.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.