Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 04, 2021 Past — — Total Weight 406.393
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
136
Value Picks Flagged
54
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 136 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 54 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.11 Claudio Puelles ROI 1.34x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Claudio Puelles vs Chris Gruetzemacher 1.34x ROI
Claudio Puelles weighted 1.11 Market 1.8 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos 1.17x ROI
Clay Guida weighted 1.84 Market 2.67 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Claudio Puelles vs Chris Gruetzemacher 0.61x ROI
Chris Gruetzemacher weighted 9.7 Market 2.01 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos 0.79x ROI
Leonardo Santos weighted 2.19 Market 1.49 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alex Morono vs Mickey Gall 0.82x ROI
Mickey Gall weighted 6.36 Market 3.0 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 38.5%

José Aldo vs Rob Font

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 98.92
ROI Momentum 0.11
Underdog Specialist 0.03
Favorite Reliability 33.47
Weight-Class Ace 13.46
Regional Familiarity 17.85
Value Pick Signal 25.55
Sample Size Confidence 81.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.