Event Selector

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 11, 2021 Past 18,471 471 Total Weight 712.532
Channels Engaged
21
Predictions Logged
245
Value Picks Flagged
95
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 245 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 21 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 95 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.36 Geoff Neal ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio 1.23x ROI
Geoff Neal weighted 1.36 Market 1.98 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige 1.22x ROI
Dan Ige weighted 1.46 Market 2.16 Crowd 1.38
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio 0.71x ROI
Santiago Ponzinibbio weighted 3.78 Market 1.82 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige 0.73x ROI
Josh Emmett weighted 3.19 Market 1.71 Crowd 3.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tai Tuivasa vs Augusto Sakai 0.78x ROI
Augusto Sakai weighted 3.47 Market 1.96 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 64.3%
Market favourite 50.0%

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 165.04
ROI Momentum 1.19
Underdog Specialist 0.75
Favorite Reliability 70.97
Weight-Class Ace 11.98
Regional Familiarity 35.4
Value Pick Signal 44.8
Sample Size Confidence 137.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.