Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 18, 2021 Past Total Weight 404.601
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
151
Value Picks Flagged
58
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 151 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 58 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Gerald Meerschaert ROI 1.39x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Gerald Meerschaert vs Dustin Stoltzfus 1.39x ROI
Gerald Meerschaert weighted 1.16 Market 2.11 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ricky Simón vs Raphael Assunção 1.27x ROI
Ricky Simón weighted 1.0 Market 1.36 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Gerald Meerschaert vs Dustin Stoltzfus 0.55x ROI
Dustin Stoltzfus weighted 7.16 Market 1.69 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ricky Simón vs Raphael Assunção 0.69x ROI
Raphael Assunção weighted — Market 3.18 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Melissa Gatto vs Sijara Eubanks 0.75x ROI
Sijara Eubanks weighted 2.56 Market 1.57 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 84.6%
Market favourite 61.5%

Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 99.86
ROI Momentum 0.32
Underdog Specialist 0.56
Favorite Reliability 37.78
Weight-Class Ace 8.03
Value Pick Signal 24.85
Sample Size Confidence 82.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.