Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 15, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 389.92
Channels Engaged
14
Predictions Logged
135
Value Picks Flagged
49
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 135 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 14 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 49 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.09 Brandon Royval ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Brandon Royval vs Rogério Bontorin 1.29x ROI
Brandon Royval weighted 1.09 Market 1.58 Crowd 1.11
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Bill Algeo vs Joanderson Brito 1.28x ROI
Joanderson Brito weighted 1.13 Market 1.66 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Brandon Royval vs Rogério Bontorin 0.66x ROI
Rogério Bontorin weighted 12.5 Market 2.4 Crowd 10.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Bill Algeo vs Joanderson Brito 0.67x ROI
Bill Algeo weighted 8.82 Market 2.24 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Court McGee vs Ramiz Brahimaj 0.75x ROI
Court McGee weighted 4.09 Market 2.03 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 60.0%

Calvin Kattar vs Giga Chikadze

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 89.06
ROI Momentum 0.49
Underdog Specialist 0.53
Favorite Reliability 36.07
Weight-Class Ace 8.02
Regional Familiarity 19.2
Value Pick Signal 28.35
Sample Size Confidence 73.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.