Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 05, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 608.473
Channels Engaged
16
Predictions Logged
213
Value Picks Flagged
65
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 213 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 16 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 65 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.22 Danilo Marques ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jailton Almeida vs Danilo Marques 1.21x ROI
Danilo Marques weighted 2.22 Market 4.16 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexis Davis vs Julija Stoliarenko 1.16x ROI
Alexis Davis weighted 1.15 Market 1.4 Crowd 1.17
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Jailton Almeida vs Danilo Marques 0.74x ROI
Jailton Almeida weighted 1.82 Market 1.23 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexis Davis vs Julija Stoliarenko 0.79x ROI
Julija Stoliarenko weighted 7.61 Market 2.95 Crowd 7.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Hakeem Dawodu vs Michael Trizano 0.81x ROI
Michael Trizano weighted 4.31 Market 2.35 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 61.5%

Sean Strickland vs Jack Hermansson

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 144.15
ROI Momentum 0.47
Underdog Specialist 1.12
Favorite Reliability 58.95
Weight-Class Ace 4.15
Regional Familiarity 29.85
Value Pick Signal 39.2
Sample Size Confidence 117.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.