Event Selector

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 12, 2022 Past Houston, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 621.949
Channels Engaged
20
Predictions Logged
210
Value Picks Flagged
70
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 210 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 20 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 70 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.15 Andrei Arlovski ROI 1.27x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa 1.27x ROI
Andrei Arlovski weighted 1.15 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa 0.68x ROI
Jared Vanderaa weighted 7.69 Market 2.24 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jacob Malkoun vs A.J. Dobson 0.71x ROI
Jacob Malkoun weighted 4.4 Market 1.95 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maxim Grishin vs William Knight 0.72x ROI
Maxim Grishin weighted 2.82 Market 1.57 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 57.1%
Pure crowd 57.1%
Market favourite 78.6%

Israel Adesanya vs Robert Whittaker

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 146.19
ROI Momentum 0.85
Underdog Specialist 2.84
Favorite Reliability 60.25
Weight-Class Ace 11.81
Regional Familiarity 30.0
Value Pick Signal 40.6
Sample Size Confidence 119.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.