Event Selector

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 05, 2022 Past 19,425 425 Total Weight 676.809
Channels Engaged
21
Predictions Logged
230
Value Picks Flagged
82
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 230 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 21 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 82 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.25 Alex Oliveira ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira 1.19x ROI
Alex Oliveira weighted 2.25 Market 3.9 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira 0.76x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 1.8 Market 1.26 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maryna Moroz vs Mariya Agapova 0.86x ROI
Maryna Moroz weighted 3.73 Market 2.48 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal 0.87x ROI
Jorge Masvidal weighted 6.74 Market 3.56 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 69.2%

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 163.97
ROI Momentum 1.2
Underdog Specialist 1.83
Favorite Reliability 65.35
Weight-Class Ace 11.62
Regional Familiarity 30.9
Value Pick Signal 38.15
Sample Size Confidence 133.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.