Event Selector

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 05, 2022 Past 19,425 425 Total Weight 617.381
Channels Engaged
14
Predictions Logged
208
Value Picks Flagged
62
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 208 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 14 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 62 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.11 Alex Oliveira ROI 1.22x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira 1.22x ROI
Alex Oliveira weighted 2.11 Market 3.9 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maryna Moroz vs Mariya Agapova 1.08x ROI
Mariya Agapova weighted 1.37 Market 1.54 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira 0.73x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 1.9 Market 1.26 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Serghei Spivac vs Greg Hardy 0.86x ROI
Serghei Spivac weighted 1.85 Market 1.47 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maryna Moroz vs Mariya Agapova 0.87x ROI
Maryna Moroz weighted 3.73 Market 2.48 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 69.2%

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 151.42
ROI Momentum 2.43
Underdog Specialist 1.69
Favorite Reliability 59.36
Weight-Class Ace 10.23
Regional Familiarity 29.85
Value Pick Signal 30.8
Sample Size Confidence 123.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.