Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 12, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 556.5
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
192
Value Picks Flagged
75
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 192 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 75 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.3 Matthew Semelsberger ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Matthew Semelsberger vs A.J. Fletcher 1.29x ROI
Matthew Semelsberger weighted 1.3 Market 2.1 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Azamat Murzakanov vs Tafon Nchukwi 1.21x ROI
Azamat Murzakanov weighted 1.15 Market 1.52 Crowd 1.17
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Matthew Semelsberger vs A.J. Fletcher 0.65x ROI
A.J. Fletcher weighted 4.34 Market 1.71 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Azamat Murzakanov vs Tafon Nchukwi 0.75x ROI
Tafon Nchukwi weighted 7.69 Market 2.61 Crowd 7.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Javid Basharat vs Trevin Jones 0.8x ROI
Trevin Jones weighted 3.84 Market 2.16 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 57.1%
Pure crowd 71.4%
Market favourite 64.3%

Magomed Ankalaev vs Thiago Santos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 130.27
ROI Momentum 0.72
Underdog Specialist 1.64
Favorite Reliability 54.67
Weight-Class Ace 6.74
Regional Familiarity 27.6
Value Pick Signal 36.05
Sample Size Confidence 106.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.