Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 19, 2022 Past London , England , UK United Kingdom Total Weight 622.446
Channels Engaged
16
Predictions Logged
211
Value Picks Flagged
83
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 211 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 16 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 83 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.42 Paul Craig ROI 1.31x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Paul Craig vs Nikita Krylov 1.31x ROI
Paul Craig weighted 1.42 Market 2.55 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jack Shore vs Timur Valiev 1.24x ROI
Jack Shore weighted 1.29 Market 1.88 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gunnar Nelson vs Takashi Sato 1.23x ROI
Takashi Sato weighted 2.25 Market 4.65 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Paul Craig vs Nikita Krylov 0.64x ROI
Nikita Krylov weighted 3.35 Market 1.52 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jack Shore vs Timur Valiev 0.7x ROI
Timur Valiev weighted 4.41 Market 1.89 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gunnar Nelson vs Takashi Sato 0.72x ROI
Gunnar Nelson weighted 1.8 Market 1.19 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 83.3%
Pure crowd 83.3%
Market favourite 66.7%

Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 144.47
ROI Momentum 0.91
Underdog Specialist 1.8
Favorite Reliability 60.18
Weight-Class Ace 11.02
Regional Familiarity 29.7
Value Pick Signal 45.15
Sample Size Confidence 118.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.