Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 26, 2022 Past Columbus, Ohio , U.S. U S Total Weight 612.265
Channels Engaged
19
Predictions Logged
211
Value Picks Flagged
97
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 211 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 19 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 97 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.25 Viacheslav Borshchev ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev 1.2x ROI
Viacheslav Borshchev weighted 1.25 Market 1.67 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa 1.12x ROI
Karol Rosa weighted 1.26 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.3
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Marc Diakiese vs Viacheslav Borshchev 0.75x ROI
Marc Diakiese weighted 5.03 Market 2.2 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa 0.84x ROI
Sara McMann weighted 4.9 Market 2.71 Crowd 4.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Luis Saldaña vs Bruno Souza 0.88x ROI
Bruno Souza weighted 2.31 Market 1.81 Crowd 2.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 142.9
ROI Momentum -1.77
Underdog Specialist 0.31
Favorite Reliability 57.27
Weight-Class Ace 6.75
Regional Familiarity 28.8
Value Pick Signal 47.6
Sample Size Confidence 119.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.