Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 16, 2022 Past Total Weight 430.857
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
151
Value Picks Flagged
52
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 151 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 52 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Trey Ogden ROI 1.27x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jordan Leavitt vs Trey Ogden 1.27x ROI
Trey Ogden weighted 1.16 Market 1.68 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Mounir Lazzez vs Ange Loosa 1.26x ROI
Ange Loosa weighted 1.56 Market 2.64 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 1.26x ROI
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev weighted 1.24 Market 1.84 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Mounir Lazzez vs Ange Loosa 0.68x ROI
Mounir Lazzez weighted 2.79 Market 1.47 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jordan Leavitt vs Trey Ogden 0.68x ROI
Jordan Leavitt weighted 7.42 Market 2.2 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Caio Borralho vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev 0.68x ROI
Caio Borralho weighted 5.17 Market 1.95 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 57.1%
Pure crowd 71.4%
Market favourite 42.9%

Belal Muhammad vs Vicente Luque

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 109.87
ROI Momentum 1.47
Underdog Specialist 2.9
Favorite Reliability 40.94
Weight-Class Ace 12.88
Value Pick Signal 22.4
Sample Size Confidence 89.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.