Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 23, 2022 Past Total Weight 279.44
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
97
Value Picks Flagged
21
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 97 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 21 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Evan Elder ROI 1.52x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Preston Parsons vs Evan Elder 1.52x ROI
Evan Elder weighted 1.0 Market 2.1 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maycee Barber vs Montana De La Rosa 1.34x ROI
Maycee Barber weighted 1.0 Market 1.5 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Preston Parsons vs Evan Elder 0.42x ROI
Preston Parsons weighted — Market 1.73 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Maycee Barber vs Montana De La Rosa 0.61x ROI
Montana De La Rosa weighted — Market 2.55 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tyson Pedro vs Ike Villanueva 0.81x ROI
Ike Villanueva weighted — Market 5.26 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 54.5%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 81.8%

Jéssica Andrade vs Amanda Lemos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 71.72
ROI Momentum 0.06
Underdog Specialist 1.34
Favorite Reliability 31.52
Weight-Class Ace 4.19
Value Pick Signal 15.4
Sample Size Confidence 58.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.