Event Selector

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 07, 2022 Past Phoenix, Arizona , U.S. U S Total Weight 484.319
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
159
Value Picks Flagged
60
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 159 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 60 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Lupita Godinez ROI 1.36x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Lupita Godinez vs Ariane Carnelossi 1.36x ROI
Lupita Godinez weighted 1.0 Market 1.56 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Blagoy Ivanov vs Marcos Rogério de Lima 1.2x ROI
Blagoy Ivanov weighted 1.24 Market 1.65 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Lupita Godinez vs Ariane Carnelossi 0.6x ROI
Ariane Carnelossi weighted — Market 2.49 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Blagoy Ivanov vs Marcos Rogério de Lima 0.74x ROI
Marcos Rogério de Lima weighted 5.15 Market 2.21 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Brandon Royval vs Matt Schnell 0.86x ROI
Matt Schnell weighted 5.24 Market 3.05 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 78.6%
Market favourite 57.1%

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 116.87
ROI Momentum 1.05
Underdog Specialist 1.35
Favorite Reliability 53.98
Weight-Class Ace 8.07
Regional Familiarity 19.2
Value Pick Signal 29.4
Sample Size Confidence 95.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.