Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 21, 2022 Past Total Weight 386.401
Channels Engaged
13
Predictions Logged
136
Value Picks Flagged
37
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 136 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 13 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 37 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Chidi Njokuani ROI 1.25x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Chidi Njokuani vs Duško Todorović 1.25x ROI
Chidi Njokuani weighted 1.0 Market 1.34 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sam Hughes vs Elise Reed 1.16x ROI
Sam Hughes weighted 1.7 Market 2.32 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Chidi Njokuani vs Duško Todorović 0.69x ROI
Duško Todorović weighted — Market 3.28 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sam Hughes vs Elise Reed 0.79x ROI
Elise Reed weighted 2.43 Market 1.6 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski 0.8x ROI
Alen Amedovski weighted 5.57 Market 2.64 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 63.6%

Ketlen Vieira vs Holly Holm

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 99.16
ROI Momentum -0.61
Underdog Specialist 0.63
Favorite Reliability 42.08
Weight-Class Ace 8.99
Value Pick Signal 18.55
Sample Size Confidence 81.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.