Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 23, 2022 Past London, England , UK United Kingdom Total Weight 762.24
Channels Engaged
20
Predictions Logged
252
Value Picks Flagged
77
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 252 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 20 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 77 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.27 Chris Curtis ROI 1.26x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge Γ—1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum Γ—1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist Γ—0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability Γ—0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace Γ—0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal Γ—0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence Γ—0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis 1.26x ROI
Chris Curtis weighted 1.27 Market 1.88 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jonathan Pearce vs Makwan Amirkhani 1.15x ROI
Jonathan Pearce weighted 1.26 Market 1.56 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Nikita Krylov vs Alexander Gustafsson 1.13x ROI
Nikita Krylov weighted 1.23 Market 1.46 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis 0.69x ROI
Jack Hermansson weighted 4.75 Market 1.91 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jonathan Pearce vs Makwan Amirkhani 0.81x ROI
Makwan Amirkhani weighted 4.81 Market 2.5 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Nikita Krylov vs Alexander Gustafsson 0.82x ROI
Alexander Gustafsson weighted 5.35 Market 2.71 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 78.6%
Pure crowd 78.6%
Market favourite 71.4%

Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet β€” waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 182.65
ROI Momentum -0.23
Underdog Specialist 2.58
Favorite Reliability 81.72
Weight-Class Ace 25.22
Regional Familiarity 28.05
Value Pick Signal 40.25
Sample Size Confidence 150.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.