Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 06, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 431.292
Channels Engaged
17
Predictions Logged
148
Value Picks Flagged
44
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 148 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 17 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 44 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.52 Mayra Bueno Silva ROI 1.16x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge Γ—1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum Γ—1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist Γ—0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability Γ—0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace Γ—0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal Γ—0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence Γ—0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Stephanie Egger 1.16x ROI
Mayra Bueno Silva weighted 1.52 Market 2.01 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos 1.15x ROI
Thiago Santos weighted 2.34 Market 3.57 Crowd 2.12
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Mohammed Usman vs Zac Pauga 1.1x ROI
Mohammed Usman weighted 2.45 Market 3.26 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Stephanie Egger 0.78x ROI
Stephanie Egger weighted 2.94 Market 1.79 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos 0.8x ROI
Jamahal Hill weighted 1.75 Market 1.3 Crowd 1.89
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Mohammed Usman vs Zac Pauga 0.85x ROI
Zac Pauga weighted 1.69 Market 1.36 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 70.0%

Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet β€” waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 106.72
ROI Momentum -1.06
Underdog Specialist 0.97
Favorite Reliability 41.77
Weight-Class Ace 4.59
Regional Familiarity 19.8
Value Pick Signal 21.7
Sample Size Confidence 88.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.