Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 13, 2022 Past San Diego, California , U.S. U S Total Weight 557.642
Channels Engaged
18
Predictions Logged
190
Value Picks Flagged
46
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 190 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 18 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 46 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Martin Buday ROI 1.26x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Martin Buday vs Łukasz Brzeski 1.26x ROI
Martin Buday weighted 1.0 Market 1.34 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Angela Hill vs Lupita Godinez 1.25x ROI
Angela Hill weighted 1.96 Market 3.81 Crowd 1.75
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gabriel Benítez vs Charlie Ontiveros 1.22x ROI
Gabriel Benítez weighted 1.0 Market 1.27 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Martin Buday vs Łukasz Brzeski 0.69x ROI
Łukasz Brzeski weighted — Market 3.2 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Angela Hill vs Lupita Godinez 0.7x ROI
Lupita Godinez weighted 2.04 Market 1.26 Crowd 2.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gabriel Benítez vs Charlie Ontiveros 0.73x ROI
Charlie Ontiveros weighted — Market 3.75 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 50.0%

Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 137.02
ROI Momentum 1.24
Underdog Specialist 1.4
Favorite Reliability 54.29
Weight-Class Ace 6.23
Regional Familiarity 24.9
Value Pick Signal 29.75
Sample Size Confidence 112.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.