Event Selector

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 20, 2022 Past Salt Lake City, Utah , U.S. U S Total Weight 591.536
Channels Engaged
19
Predictions Logged
203
Value Picks Flagged
46
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 203 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 19 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 46 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Amir Albazi ROI 1.16x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Amir Albazi vs Francisco Figueiredo 1.16x ROI
Amir Albazi weighted 1.0 Market 1.19 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Amir Albazi vs Francisco Figueiredo 0.79x ROI
Francisco Figueiredo weighted — Market 4.73 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman 0.81x ROI
Kamaru Usman weighted 1.68 Market 1.28 Crowd 1.7
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marcin Tybura vs Alexander Romanov 0.82x ROI
Marcin Tybura weighted 12.2 Market 3.83 Crowd 10.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 45.5%

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 146.82
ROI Momentum 0.54
Underdog Specialist 0.61
Favorite Reliability 54.23
Weight-Class Ace 9.13
Regional Familiarity 26.25
Value Pick Signal 29.75
Sample Size Confidence 121.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.