Event Selector

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 10, 2022 Past 19,125 125 Total Weight 772.373
Channels Engaged
25
Predictions Logged
271
Value Picks Flagged
100
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 271 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 25 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 100 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.88 Kevin Holland ROI 1.35x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland 1.35x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 1.88 Market 5.46 Crowd 1.79
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kevin Holland 0.61x ROI
Khamzat Chimaev weighted 2.14 Market 1.16 Crowd 2.27
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Norma Dumont vs Danyelle Wolf 0.79x ROI
Norma Dumont weighted 1.38 Market 1.07 Crowd 1.44
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Johnny Walker vs Ion Cuțelaba 0.8x ROI
Ion Cuțelaba weighted 2.12 Market 1.48 Crowd 2.29
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 53.8%
Pure crowd 61.5%
Market favourite 38.5%

Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 193.78
ROI Momentum -3.91
Underdog Specialist 1.92
Favorite Reliability 64.37
Weight-Class Ace 2.02
Regional Familiarity 36.75
Value Pick Signal 44.45
Sample Size Confidence 162.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.