Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 01, 2022 Past Total Weight 433.793
Channels Engaged
15
Predictions Logged
150
Value Picks Flagged
50
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 150 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 15 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 50 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.71 Yan Xiaonan ROI 1.27x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Yan Xiaonan vs Mackenzie Dern 1.27x ROI
Yan Xiaonan weighted 1.71 Market 3.15 Crowd 1.62
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik 1.19x ROI
Ilir Latifi weighted 1.2 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo 1.13x ROI
Randy Brown weighted 1.11 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Yan Xiaonan vs Mackenzie Dern 0.68x ROI
Mackenzie Dern weighted 2.41 Market 1.36 Crowd 2.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik 0.76x ROI
Aleksei Oleinik weighted 6.01 Market 2.43 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo 0.83x ROI
Francisco Trinaldo weighted 10.11 Market 3.69 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 54.5%

Yan Xiaonan vs Mackenzie Dern

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 110.02
ROI Momentum 0.87
Underdog Specialist 1.93
Favorite Reliability 44.9
Weight-Class Ace 11.92
Value Pick Signal 24.15
Sample Size Confidence 90.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.