Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araújo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 15, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 453.438
Channels Engaged
16
Predictions Logged
155
Value Picks Flagged
51
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 155 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 16 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 51 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.27 Victor Henry ROI 1.7x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Raphael Assunção vs Victor Henry 1.7x ROI
Victor Henry weighted 1.27 Market 11.93 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Duško Todorović vs Jordan Wright 1.28x ROI
Jordan Wright weighted 1.58 Market 2.8 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Raphael Assunção vs Victor Henry 0.24x ROI
Raphael Assunção weighted 4.72 Market 1.03 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Duško Todorović vs Jordan Wright 0.68x ROI
Duško Todorović weighted 2.73 Market 1.45 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Joanderson Brito vs Lucas Alexander 0.73x ROI
Joanderson Brito weighted 1.86 Market 1.24 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 90.9%

Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araújo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 112.87
ROI Momentum -0.87
Underdog Specialist -1.33
Favorite Reliability 43.35
Weight-Class Ace 4.91
Regional Familiarity 20.25
Value Pick Signal 26.25
Sample Size Confidence 93.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.