Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 29, 2022 Past Total Weight 459.038
Channels Engaged
18
Predictions Logged
161
Value Picks Flagged
49
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 161 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 18 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 49 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Cody Durden ROI 1.58x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Cody Durden vs Carlos Mota 1.58x ROI
Cody Durden weighted 1.0 Market 2.36 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Roman Dolidze vs Phil Hawes 1.27x ROI
Phil Hawes weighted 1.09 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.11
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Cody Durden vs Carlos Mota 0.38x ROI
Carlos Mota weighted — Market 1.6 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Roman Dolidze vs Phil Hawes 0.68x ROI
Roman Dolidze weighted 11.68 Market 2.46 Crowd 10.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Dustin Jacoby 0.71x ROI
Khalil Rountree Jr. weighted 8.12 Market 2.43 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 54.5%

Arnold Allen vs Calvin Kattar

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 116.14
ROI Momentum -0.85
Underdog Specialist -0.65
Favorite Reliability 55.83
Weight-Class Ace 4.97
Value Pick Signal 26.6
Sample Size Confidence 96.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.