Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 05, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 387.108
Channels Engaged
16
Predictions Logged
130
Value Picks Flagged
54
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 130 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 16 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 54 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.45 Nate Maness ROI 1.35x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness 1.35x ROI
Nate Maness weighted 1.45 Market 2.96 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Nate Maness 0.56x ROI
Tagir Ulanbekov weighted 3.23 Market 1.34 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tamires Vidal vs Ramona Pascual 0.73x ROI
Tamires Vidal weighted 3.33 Market 1.76 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs Darrick Minner 0.74x ROI
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke weighted 1.87 Market 1.25 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 90.9%

Amanda Lemos vs Marina Rodriguez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 95.15
ROI Momentum 0.3
Underdog Specialist 0.4
Favorite Reliability 42.91
Regional Familiarity 16.2
Value Pick Signal 24.15
Sample Size Confidence 78.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.