Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cuțelaba

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 19, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 432.399
Channels Engaged
11
Predictions Logged
146
Value Picks Flagged
48
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 146 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 11 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 48 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Charles Johnson ROI 1.37x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Charles Johnson vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1.37x ROI
Charles Johnson weighted 1.0 Market 1.6 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad 1.27x ROI
Ricky Turcios weighted 1.12 Market 1.61 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Charles Johnson vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0.57x ROI
Zhalgas Zhumagulov weighted — Market 2.33 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad 0.68x ROI
Kevin Natividad weighted 9.44 Market 2.34 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jennifer Maia vs Maryna Moroz 0.82x ROI
Maryna Moroz weighted 2.11 Market 1.52 Crowd 2.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 90.9%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 81.8%

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Ion Cuțelaba

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 106.59
ROI Momentum -0.87
Underdog Specialist -0.08
Favorite Reliability 48.28
Weight-Class Ace 1.18
Regional Familiarity 21.3
Value Pick Signal 22.4
Sample Size Confidence 87.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.