Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 03, 2022 Past Orlando, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 686.265
Channels Engaged
19
Predictions Logged
229
Value Picks Flagged
68
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 229 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 19 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 68 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Marc Diakiese ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese 1.21x ROI
Marc Diakiese weighted 1.0 Market 1.27 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese 0.74x ROI
Michael Johnson weighted — Market 3.86 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland 0.8x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 2.18 Market 1.52 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Angela Hill vs Emily Ducote 0.82x ROI
Emily Ducote weighted 2.47 Market 1.72 Crowd 2.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 64.3%
Market favourite 50.0%

Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 165.21
ROI Momentum 0.28
Underdog Specialist -0.14
Favorite Reliability 65.03
Weight-Class Ace 22.49
Regional Familiarity 30.75
Value Pick Signal 37.45
Sample Size Confidence 136.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.