Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 17, 2022 Past Total Weight 523.862
Channels Engaged
17
Predictions Logged
182
Value Picks Flagged
64
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 182 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 17 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 64 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Arman Tsarukyan ROI 1.33x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Arman Tsarukyan vs Damir Ismagulov 1.33x ROI
Arman Tsarukyan weighted 1.0 Market 1.49 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Arman Tsarukyan vs Damir Ismagulov 0.62x ROI
Damir Ismagulov weighted — Market 2.61 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Cory McKenna vs Cheyanne Vlismas 0.76x ROI
Cheyanne Vlismas weighted 2.79 Market 1.66 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alex Caceres vs Julian Erosa 0.79x ROI
Alex Caceres weighted 4.96 Market 2.41 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 76.9%
Pure crowd 76.9%
Market favourite 69.2%

Jared Cannonier vs Sean Strickland

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 132.83
ROI Momentum -0.41
Underdog Specialist -1.57
Favorite Reliability 60.55
Weight-Class Ace 12.55
Value Pick Signal 28.7
Sample Size Confidence 109.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.