Event Selector

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 21, 2023 Past Rio de Janeiro , Brazil Brazil Total Weight 766.858
Channels Engaged
20
Predictions Logged
260
Value Picks Flagged
81
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 260 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 20 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 81 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.24 Nicolas Dalby ROI 1.31x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Nicolas Dalby vs Warlley Alves 1.31x ROI
Nicolas Dalby weighted 1.24 Market 2.04 Crowd 1.22
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jailton Almeida vs Shamil Abdurakhimov 1.31x ROI
Shamil Abdurakhimov weighted 2.31 Market 7.98 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Nicolas Dalby vs Warlley Alves 0.63x ROI
Warlley Alves weighted 5.09 Market 1.76 Crowd 5.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jailton Almeida vs Shamil Abdurakhimov 0.64x ROI
Jailton Almeida weighted 1.76 Market 1.07 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gabriel Bonfim vs Mounir Lazzez 0.74x ROI
Mounir Lazzez weighted 6.79 Market 2.46 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 15
Weighted model 80.0%
Pure crowd 93.3%
Market favourite 66.7%

Jamahal Hill vs Glover Teixeira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 189.11
ROI Momentum 1.54
Underdog Specialist 2.94
Favorite Reliability 66.58
Weight-Class Ace 13.5
Regional Familiarity 33.15
Value Pick Signal 45.85
Sample Size Confidence 154.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.