Event Selector

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 18, 2023 Past London , England , UK United Kingdom Total Weight 963.405
Channels Engaged
37
Predictions Logged
343
Value Picks Flagged
96
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 343 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 37 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 96 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Christian Leroy Duncan ROI 1.31x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Duško Todorović 1.31x ROI
Christian Leroy Duncan weighted 1.0 Market 1.46 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Lerone Murphy vs Gabriel Santos 1.21x ROI
Lerone Murphy weighted 1.17 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jack Shore vs Makwan Amirkhani 1.15x ROI
Jack Shore weighted 1.0 Market 1.18 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Duško Todorović 0.63x ROI
Duško Todorović weighted — Market 2.73 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Lerone Murphy vs Gabriel Santos 0.74x ROI
Gabriel Santos weighted 6.8 Market 2.47 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jack Shore vs Makwan Amirkhani 0.79x ROI
Makwan Amirkhani weighted — Market 4.79 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 64.3%
Pure crowd 64.3%
Market favourite 64.3%

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 222.43
ROI Momentum -3.0
Underdog Specialist -2.4
Favorite Reliability 97.81
Weight-Class Ace 30.51
Regional Familiarity 42.75
Value Pick Signal 46.9
Sample Size Confidence 185.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.