Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 25, 2023 Past San Antonio , Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 615.123
Channels Engaged
21
Predictions Logged
210
Value Picks Flagged
79
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 210 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 21 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 79 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.04 Andrea Lee ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Maycee Barber vs Andrea Lee 1.19x ROI
Andrea Lee weighted 2.04 Market 3.28 Crowd 1.9
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Maycee Barber vs Andrea Lee 0.77x ROI
Maycee Barber weighted 1.97 Market 1.35 Crowd 2.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Nate Landwehr vs Austin Lingo 0.88x ROI
Austin Lingo weighted 4.09 Market 2.73 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz 0.9x ROI
Tucker Lutz weighted 1.59 Market 1.37 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 60.0%
Market favourite 70.0%

Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Vera

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 152.32
ROI Momentum -0.82
Underdog Specialist -0.61
Favorite Reliability 66.01
Weight-Class Ace 2.97
Regional Familiarity 23.55
Value Pick Signal 35.7
Sample Size Confidence 126.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.