Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 25, 2023 Past San Antonio , Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 641.866
Channels Engaged
27
Predictions Logged
224
Value Picks Flagged
82
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 224 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 27 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 82 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.18 Andrea Lee ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Maycee Barber vs Andrea Lee 1.15x ROI
Andrea Lee weighted 2.18 Market 3.28 Crowd 2.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Maycee Barber vs Andrea Lee 0.8x ROI
Maycee Barber weighted 1.84 Market 1.35 Crowd 1.91
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Vera 0.85x ROI
Marlon Vera weighted 3.42 Market 2.28 Crowd 3.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Trevin Giles vs Preston Parsons 0.87x ROI
Trevin Giles weighted 2.49 Market 1.89 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 70.0%

Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Vera

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 156.21
ROI Momentum -1.79
Underdog Specialist -0.67
Favorite Reliability 67.64
Weight-Class Ace 4.42
Regional Familiarity 25.35
Value Pick Signal 37.1
Sample Size Confidence 129.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.