Event Selector

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 08, 2023 Past Miami, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 706.255
Channels Engaged
21
Predictions Logged
241
Value Picks Flagged
76
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 241 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 21 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 76 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.11 Lupita Godinez ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Lupita Godinez vs Cynthia Calvillo 1.18x ROI
Lupita Godinez weighted 1.11 Market 1.38 Crowd 1.11
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sam Hughes vs Jaqueline Amorim 1.15x ROI
Jaqueline Amorim weighted 1.13 Market 1.37 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Lupita Godinez vs Cynthia Calvillo 0.78x ROI
Cynthia Calvillo weighted 10.49 Market 3.15 Crowd 10.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sam Hughes vs Jaqueline Amorim 0.8x ROI
Sam Hughes weighted 8.85 Market 3.19 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Curtis 0.82x ROI
Kelvin Gastelum weighted 2.56 Market 1.74 Crowd 2.8
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 66.7%

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 173.25
ROI Momentum 0.36
Underdog Specialist -0.31
Favorite Reliability 70.29
Weight-Class Ace 8.72
Regional Familiarity 28.95
Value Pick Signal 40.6
Sample Size Confidence 143.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.