Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 15, 2023 Past Kansas City, Missouri , U.S. U S Total Weight 630.978
Channels Engaged
18
Predictions Logged
215
Value Picks Flagged
84
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 215 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 18 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 84 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.31 Tanner Boser ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Ion Cuțelaba vs Tanner Boser 1.29x ROI
Tanner Boser weighted 1.31 Market 2.11 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joselyne Edwards vs Lucie Pudilová 1.28x ROI
Joselyne Edwards weighted 1.34 Market 2.14 Crowd 1.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dustin Jacoby 1.28x ROI
Dustin Jacoby weighted 1.11 Market 1.6 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Ion Cuțelaba vs Tanner Boser 0.65x ROI
Ion Cuțelaba weighted 4.2 Market 1.71 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joselyne Edwards vs Lucie Pudilová 0.66x ROI
Lucie Pudilová weighted 3.92 Market 1.69 Crowd 4.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dustin Jacoby 0.68x ROI
Azamat Murzakanov weighted 10.07 Market 2.37 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 57.1%
Market favourite 57.1%

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 157.38
ROI Momentum 0.62
Underdog Specialist 0.28
Favorite Reliability 58.84
Weight-Class Ace 8.5
Regional Familiarity 25.65
Value Pick Signal 35.7
Sample Size Confidence 129.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.