Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 22, 2023 Past Total Weight 584.299
Channels Engaged
26
Predictions Logged
208
Value Picks Flagged
78
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 208 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 26 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 78 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.26 Mohammad Usman ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mohammad Usman vs Junior Tafa 1.29x ROI
Mohammad Usman weighted 1.26 Market 1.97 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Bobby Green vs Jared Gordon 1.17x ROI
Bobby Green weighted 1.11 Market 1.36 Crowd 1.1
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Christos Giagos vs Ricky Glenn 1.11x ROI
Ricky Glenn weighted 1.36 Market 1.6 Crowd 1.36
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Mohammad Usman vs Junior Tafa 0.66x ROI
Junior Tafa weighted 4.91 Market 1.83 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Bobby Green vs Jared Gordon 0.78x ROI
Jared Gordon weighted 10.14 Market 3.15 Crowd 11.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Christos Giagos vs Ricky Glenn 0.83x ROI
Christos Giagos weighted 3.81 Market 2.33 Crowd 3.75
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 30.0%
Pure crowd 40.0%
Market favourite 40.0%

Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 145.33
ROI Momentum -1.75
Underdog Specialist -1.0
Favorite Reliability 62.59
Weight-Class Ace 13.52
Value Pick Signal 36.4
Sample Size Confidence 121.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.