Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 22, 2023 Past Total Weight 507.0
Channels Engaged
18
Predictions Logged
177
Value Picks Flagged
55
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 177 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 18 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 55 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.35 Mohammad Usman ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Mohammad Usman vs Junior Tafa 1.24x ROI
Mohammad Usman weighted 1.35 Market 1.97 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Bobby Green vs Jared Gordon 1.15x ROI
Bobby Green weighted 1.13 Market 1.36 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Montel Jackson vs Rani Yahya 1.14x ROI
Montel Jackson weighted 1.0 Market 1.17 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Mohammad Usman vs Junior Tafa 0.71x ROI
Junior Tafa weighted 3.89 Market 1.83 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Bobby Green vs Jared Gordon 0.8x ROI
Jared Gordon weighted 8.73 Market 3.15 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Montel Jackson vs Rani Yahya 0.81x ROI
Rani Yahya weighted — Market 5.14 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 40.0%
Pure crowd 40.0%
Market favourite 40.0%

Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 129.04
ROI Momentum -0.51
Underdog Specialist -0.68
Favorite Reliability 55.26
Weight-Class Ace 12.7
Value Pick Signal 28.0
Sample Size Confidence 106.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.