Event Selector

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodríguez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 08, 2023 Past 19,204 204 Total Weight 2769.938
Channels Engaged
170
Predictions Logged
1174
Value Picks Flagged
291
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1174 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 170 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 291 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.22 Jesús Santos Aguilar ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jesús Santos Aguilar vs Shannon Ross 1.23x ROI
Jesús Santos Aguilar weighted 1.22 Market 1.7 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Esteban Ribovics vs Kamuela Kirk 1.19x ROI
Esteban Ribovics weighted 1.26 Market 1.65 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jesús Santos Aguilar vs Shannon Ross 0.72x ROI
Shannon Ross weighted 5.62 Market 2.18 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Esteban Ribovics vs Kamuela Kirk 0.76x ROI
Kamuela Kirk weighted 4.92 Market 2.27 Crowd 4.22
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno 0.82x ROI
Brandon Moreno weighted 2.06 Market 1.5 Crowd 2.19
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 69.2%
Pure crowd 69.2%
Market favourite 53.8%

Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodríguez

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 564.07
ROI Momentum -3.39
Underdog Specialist 8.98
Favorite Reliability 238.84
Weight-Class Ace 29.94
Regional Familiarity 126.9
Value Pick Signal 159.6
Sample Size Confidence 471.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.