Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 22, 2023 Past London , England , UK United Kingdom Total Weight 2042.619
Channels Engaged
74
Predictions Logged
785
Value Picks Flagged
257
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 785 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 74 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 257 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Molly McCann ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Julija Stoliarenko vs Molly McCann 1.18x ROI
Molly McCann weighted 1.16 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.18
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ketlen Vieira vs Pannie Kianzad 1.17x ROI
Ketlen Vieira weighted 1.28 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Ketlen Vieira vs Pannie Kianzad 0.77x ROI
Pannie Kianzad weighted 4.59 Market 2.25 Crowd 3.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Julija Stoliarenko vs Molly McCann 0.78x ROI
Julija Stoliarenko weighted 7.1 Market 2.75 Crowd 6.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Joel Álvarez vs Marc Diakiese 0.83x ROI
Marc Diakiese weighted 4.59 Market 2.6 Crowd 3.9
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 15
Weighted model 73.3%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 73.3%

Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 447.96
ROI Momentum 3.81
Underdog Specialist 7.39
Favorite Reliability 169.15
Weight-Class Ace 45.76
Regional Familiarity 93.0
Value Pick Signal 122.15
Sample Size Confidence 368.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.