Event Selector

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 29, 2023 Past Salt Lake City, Utah , U.S. U S Total Weight 2382.339
Channels Engaged
170
Predictions Logged
1056
Value Picks Flagged
266
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1056 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 170 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 266 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.0 Derrick Lewis ROI 1.13x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogério de Lima 1.13x ROI
Derrick Lewis weighted 2.0 Market 2.72 Crowd 1.95
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa 1.13x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 1.37 Market 1.66 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogério de Lima 0.82x ROI
Marcos Rogério de Lima weighted 2.0 Market 1.47 Crowd 2.06
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa 0.83x ROI
Michael Chiesa weighted 3.67 Market 2.24 Crowd 3.55
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Uroš Medić vs Matthew Semelsberger 0.87x ROI
Uroš Medić weighted 3.66 Market 2.48 Crowd 3.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 72.7%

Justin Gaethje vs Dustin Poirier

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 451.61
ROI Momentum -5.75
Underdog Specialist -2.0
Favorite Reliability 195.07
Weight-Class Ace 49.44
Regional Familiarity 116.85
Value Pick Signal 144.9
Sample Size Confidence 376.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.